2027: Why Peter Obi, Atiku Can’t Form Coalition – Umar Ardo

Political strategist and Convener of the League of Northern Democrats, Umar Ardo, has explained why he believes former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi may struggle to form a strong opposition coalition ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Ardo said Atiku, the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), was unlikely to withdraw from the race, while Obi could step aside but risk losing the support of his political base.

Speaking on Arise News, Ardo identified the positions of the two politicians and the reactions of their supporters as major obstacles to a possible merger.

According to him, Atiku would likely retain his supporters if he chose to withdraw, but he does not appear inclined to make such a decision.

“My view is that Atiku does not have the propensity by himself to say, ‘I will step down.’ If he says so, he will not have a problem with his support base. But the issue is that he is highly unlikely to say that,” Ardo said.

He, however, said Obi, whom he identified as the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), could be more willing to step aside, but his supporters might not follow him.

“Then Peter Obi has the propensity to say, ‘I will step down.’ But if he says so, he will not have his support base. He will not be able to carry his support base. His support base will not go with him,” he added.

Ardo said resolving the two challenges would be critical to achieving a unified opposition platform ahead of the election.

“Unless we are able to resolve these two challenges, then I don’t see the fusing together being possible,” he stated.

Despite his doubts about a merger, Ardo said either politician could still disrupt the existing political order independently if they developed an effective electoral strategy.

“Even if they do not fuse together, individually, anyone of them has the capacity to upturn the order, depending on how he strategises himself,” he said.