Food Security on a Knife‑Edge: Nigeria’s Farm Reforms, Fertiliser Costs and Fragile Recovery

Nigeria’s agriculture sector is showing early signs of recovery after years of structural challenges, but experts warn that food security gains remain fragile and could easily be reversed. Recent economic and policy discussions have highlighted both progress and persistent vulnerabilities in the country’s farming systems.

At a Vanguard Economic Discourse on food security and farm reforms, government officials and private sector leaders noted modest improvements in key indicators. The Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, represented by an official, reported that prices of some food items had dropped by up to 50 per cent and that food inflation fell to 8.98 per cent in January, the first single‑digit rate in a decade.

He attributed these shifts to interventions such as the National Agricultural Growth Scheme, which has supported over 622,000 farmers and boosted yields in participating states.

The scheme has reportedly distributed more than two million bags of fertiliser to over one million farmers, helping to address one of the sector’s most pressing constraints. Fertiliser is critical for raising productivity but has become the single largest cost item for many producers.

Officials warned that despite input support, market prices for fertiliser remain around N60,000 per bag, still unaffordable for many smallholder farmers.

Experts cautioned that without continued support, yield gains may evaporate. They warned that average yields could fall from three to four metric tonnes per hectare to about 1.5 tonnes if farmers reduce fertiliser application due to cost. Such a drop would not only hurt incomes but also undermine national efforts to stabilise food supplies and prices.

Global and domestic policy reviews have echoed these concerns. FAO’s 2025 Nigeria Food and Agriculture Policy Monitoring Review found that while agricultural spending increased in nominal terms between 2015 and 2021, it remained at around 2 per cent of federal expenditure—far below the 10 per cent commitment under regional agreements.

The report highlighted uneven incentives across crops, with rice benefiting from protective trade measures while maize and sorghum face disincentives linked to weak market integration and restrictive policies.

Export crops such as cocoa and cashew also face challenges, including quality control issues, high logistics costs and misaligned macroeconomic conditions. FAO recommended optimising spending to combine long‑term investments with short‑term productivity measures, improving trade and value chains, and streamlining export procedures.

These recommendations align with domestic calls for more coherent, data‑driven agricultural policy.

Nigeria’s Presidential Food Systems Coordinating Unit is developing the National Agribusiness Policy Mechanism (NAPM) to tackle some of these issues. According to state house communications, NAPM aims to strengthen productivity, stabilise food prices and drive growth through data‑driven policies and public‑private partnerships. It will use real‑time analytics to align agricultural efforts across government tiers and address problems such as inefficient subsidies and outdated practices.

The Green Imperative Project, a $1.1 billion initiative between Nigeria and Brazil, is expected to modernise hundreds of mid‑sized farms with Brazilian technology. The project aims to improve mechanisation, processing and value‑addition, creating jobs and boosting productivity. If successfully implemented, it could support NAPM’s goal of reducing yield gaps and enhancing resilience.

Despite these plans, stakeholders emphasise that implementation is the critical test. Farmers still face challenges with access to credit, extension services and infrastructure such as storage and roads. Climate variability adds uncertainty, with changing rainfall patterns affecting planting decisions and yields. Without robust support systems, smallholder farmers remain vulnerable to shocks, from price swings to extreme weather.

Participants at the economic discourse urged sustained investment and policy consistency. They argued that quick wins in inflation and output must be consolidated through deeper reforms that improve market integration, strengthen value chains and expand rural infrastructure. They also called for better monitoring and evaluation of programmes to ensure that resources reach intended beneficiaries and generate measurable impact.

For Nigeria’s agriculture and food security, the current moment is delicate. Early signs of recovery offer hope, but high fertiliser costs, uneven incentives and under‑investment pose ongoing risks. As government moves ahead with NAPM, Green Imperative and other reforms, the extent to which these initiatives translate into sustained improvements on farm fields and in markets will determine whether the country can move from fragile gains to lasting food security.