Nigeria’s Exports to Africa Hit N10.72tn Amid Naira Illusion

Nigeria’s exports to African countries rose to N10.72tn in the first half of 2026, representing a 122.26 per cent increase from N4.82tn recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.

The increase has drawn attention to export composition and the effect of naira depreciation on trade values.

Crude petroleum, refined fuels, gas products, electricity and urea accounted for about 94.75 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to Africa, valued at approximately N10.15tn. This compared with 90.24 per cent, worth N4.35tn, in the first half of 2025.

The oil and gas value chain grew by 133.36 per cent between the two periods, exceeding overall export growth. This indicates that petroleum products were the principal drivers of the increase.

Economists have cautioned against interpreting naira-denominated figures as evidence of a similar increase in real export earnings. They argue that currency depreciation can make export values rise significantly even when underlying dollar earnings change modestly.

Chief Executive Officer of Economic Associates, Dr Ayo Teriba, described this effect as a “naira illusion,” urging analysts to examine trade performance in dollar terms for a clearer picture.

The development also highlights the growing role of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Nigeria’s exports to African markets. Analysts said increased shipments of refined petroleum products and petrochemicals are contributing significantly to the surge.

However, identifiable non-oil products among leading export categories, including cement, cigarettes, tyres, vessels and food preparations, declined from about N309.46bn in the first half of 2025 to N296.61bn in 2026.

Their share of exports to Africa also fell from 6.42 per cent to 2.77 per cent despite the overall expansion in trade.

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group has raised concerns about Nigeria’s limited manufacturing content. It noted that manufactured goods accounted for only 0.9 per cent of Nigeria’s intra-African trade in the first quarter of 2026.

The trend underscores challenges for export diversification under the African Continental Free Trade Area.

Analysts have called for stronger domestic manufacturing, improved infrastructure, better trade data and policies that encourage value addition.

The N10.72tn figure represents an increase in nominal export value, but its significance depends on how much growth reflects higher production, expanded market access and foreign exchange earnings.