Atiku-Kwankwaso Alliance May Split Northern Votes in 2027, Stakeholders Warn

Voters and political stakeholders across northern Nigeria have expressed concerns that a possible political alignment or rivalry between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso could significantly divide the region’s votes ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

The debate follows growing speculation around emerging opposition realignments, including discussions of a potential alliance involving Kwankwaso and Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi, while Atiku is expected to pursue another presidential bid on a separate platform with a yet-to-be-announced running mate.

An African Democratic Congress (ADC) chieftain, Adnan Mukhtar Tudun Wada, said Kwankwaso’s influence remains largely concentrated in Kano State, while Atiku enjoys broader recognition across several northern states. He argued that such differences in political reach could shape voting patterns in 2027.

According to him, “Kwankwaso’s strength is mainly in Kano, while Atiku is more spread across the North. That difference will play a major role in the next election.”

He also claimed that perceptions from the 2023 election cycle may still influence voter sentiment, especially regarding political alliances involving southern candidates.

However, a Kano-based Obidient coordinator, Barrister Ibrahim Muhammad, disagreed, saying the 2027 elections may produce a different voting pattern due to evolving alliances among opposition figures.

He noted that Kwankwaso’s political structure, combined with Obi’s national appeal, could reshape voter dynamics across the North-West, North-East, and North-Central regions. He also suggested that the strength of any alliance would depend on party structures, running mates, and perceived chances of defeating President Bola Tinubu.

Muhammad further argued that broader coalition talks involving parties such as the Labour Party, SDP, APGA, and other emerging movements could significantly influence electoral outcomes if properly managed.

On the other hand, critic Mamman Buhari dismissed both camps, saying neither Atiku nor Kwankwaso would secure victory in the 2027 election, describing their political relationship as driven by personal ambition.

He said, “Both Obi and Kwankwaso are not acting in unity for the people, and Atiku should step aside after years of contesting.”

As political negotiations and alliances continue to take shape, analysts say the 2027 election could witness one of the most fragmented voting patterns in northern Nigeria’s recent political history.