World Bank Raises Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.3%, Cites Improving Macroeconomic Stability

The World Bank has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.3 per cent, up from 4.0 per cent recorded in 2025.

The revised projection was contained in the World Bank’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update released on Tuesday.

The bank said Nigeria’s economic activity was expected to strengthen further, supported by improving macroeconomic stability, stronger investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment.

The revised outlook places Nigeria among several African economies whose growth forecasts were upgraded, including Angola, Ethiopia and Zambia. The World Bank said the improvements reflected the effects of economic reforms and better economic management across the countries.

Nigeria’s latest growth projection also follows stronger-than-expected domestic economic activity. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that real Gross Domestic Product grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026.

The World Bank expects Nigeria’s growth to increase further to 4.4 per cent annually in 2027 and 2028.

At the regional level, the bank raised its forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa to 4.3 per cent in 2026, from 4.1 per cent previously. It said growth across the region remained resilient despite geopolitical tensions, climate shocks, fiscal pressures and declining development assistance.

The bank, however, warned that stronger economic growth has not yet translated into sufficient poverty reduction or enough productive jobs. It said per capita income growth across the region remained well below overall economic growth.

For Nigeria, the institution noted that elevated fuel prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East could continue to put pressure on low-income households and constrain poverty reduction.

The World Bank also identified risks to the broader African outlook, including prolonged geopolitical tensions, high global interest rates, debt-servicing pressures and climate-related shocks.

It urged African governments to invest in artificial intelligence and digital technologies to improve productivity, create jobs and support economic transformation.

The bank said Nigeria and other countries would need to sustain reforms, strengthen private investment, improve infrastructure and human capital, and raise productivity to translate improved macroeconomic stability into better living standards.

The revised forecast therefore offers a more positive outlook for Nigeria’s economy while highlighting the need for growth to generate broader employment and income gains.