Tinubu Edges Obi By 1,067 Responses In Oxford-Metro Poll

President Bola Tinubu has narrowly edged Peter Obi in the Oxford-Metro Analytics National Trust Poll ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

The poll, which closed on September 7, recorded 69,110 approved and unflagged responses in its final analytical dataset.

Tinubu received 24,469 responses, representing 35.41 per cent of the total, while Obi recorded 23,402 responses, representing 33.86 per cent.

The figures put Tinubu 1,067 responses ahead of Obi, a difference of approximately 1.54 percentage points.

Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar came third with 18,430 responses, representing 26.67 per cent of the total participation.

The poll showed a three-way contest among the leading presidential contenders, with relatively small differences between Tinubu and Obi despite the larger gap separating the two from Atiku.

Regionally, the results showed significant variations in support for the three leading candidates.

Tinubu led in the South-West, North-West and North-Central geopolitical zones, while Obi recorded his strongest performance in the South-East and South-South.

Atiku led in the North-East.

Tinubu received 10,968 responses in the South-West, accounting for 43.53 per cent of responses in the region. He also recorded 4,129 responses in the North-West and 6,370 in the North-Central.

Obi secured 5,796 responses in the South-East, representing 63.97 per cent of the regional total, while his 2,389 responses in the South-South accounted for 41.48 per cent.

Atiku led in the North-East with 1,235 responses, representing 55.46 per cent of responses recorded in the zone.

The poll also produced a different political map from the outcome of the 2023 presidential election.

Tinubu, who won 12 states in 2023, was reported to have led in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory in the online poll. Obi and Atiku each recorded the highest number of responses in eight states.

However, the poll itself cautions that its figures represent preferences among participating respondents and should not be treated as a representative survey of Nigeria’s electorate, an official election result or a prediction of the 2027 election.

The findings nevertheless provide an indication of the political preferences expressed by participants as the major parties and presidential contenders intensify preparations for the 2027 election.

With Tinubu seeking another term and Obi and Atiku leading separate opposition platforms, the narrow national margin highlights the competitive nature of the emerging presidential contest.