Political analyst Henry Shield has claimed that President Bola Tinubu could struggle to replicate his 2023 electoral performance, alleging that 900 out of every 1,000 Nigerians would not vote for him in 2027.

Shield made the claim during an interview on Vanguard’s Politics Hub, where he was asked to provide evidence for his prediction that Tinubu would not secure as many votes as he did in the 2023 presidential election.

He said his assessment was based on consultations, market surveys, street surveys and interactions with Nigerians across different segments of society.

“We do market consultation, market surveys, we do street surveys. We go out and we engage with the people, and I can tell you, sample 1,000 Nigerians, 900 of them are not going to vote for Tinubu,” Shield said.

The analyst challenged media organisations and other stakeholders to independently test his claim through a nationwide opinion survey.

He said such a survey would provide a clearer indication of voters’ current preferences ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

“Sample 1,000 opinions today in Nigeria, 900 of them are not going to vote for Tinubu,” he added.

Tinubu won the 2023 presidential election with 8,794,726 votes, representing 36.61 per cent of the total votes cast.

Atiku Abubakar, the Peoples Democratic Party candidate, came second with 6,984,520 votes, while Labour Party candidate Peter Obi polled 6,101,533 votes.

The three politicians are expected to remain prominent figures in the 2027 presidential contest, although Atiku and Obi have since moved to different political platforms.

Atiku is now with the African Democratic Congress, while Obi has moved from the Labour Party to the Nigerian Democratic Congress.