2026 Set to Be Second-Hottest Year on Record — EU Climate Monitor

The year 2026 is likely to become the second-hottest year on record, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, which has warned of continued global warming driven by human activities and intensified by El Niño.

In its latest climate assessment released on Friday, November 6, Copernicus said there was an approximately 80 per cent probability that 2026 would rank as the second-warmest year since records began.

The service added that there was a 20 per cent chance that the year could match or surpass the temperature record set in 2024, currently the warmest year on record.

The assessment was based on global temperature data collected between January and October.

Copernicus reported that October 2026 was the warmest October on record globally, with an average surface air temperature of 15.35°C. This was 0.90°C above the 1991–2020 average and 1.75°C above the estimated pre-industrial level.

October also marked the third consecutive month in which global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above the pre-industrial benchmark.

The climate service projected that the average global temperature for the full year would be between 1.56°C and 1.61°C above pre-industrial levels. This would make 2026 only the second calendar year after 2024 to cross that threshold in the Copernicus dataset.

Copernicus also said the four-year average temperature for 2023 to 2026 was expected to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, highlighting the persistence of unusually high global temperatures.

Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said exceptionally high global and ocean temperatures had continued into October.

She noted that an exceptionally strong El Niño was adding further heat to a climate already warmed by human activities.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern involving unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. It can temporarily increase global temperatures, intensifying the effects of long-term human-caused warming.

The findings come as countries prepare for the United Nations climate summit, COP31, in Türkiye, where governments are expected to discuss climate action and efforts to limit further global warming.

Although individual years can exceed the 1.5°C threshold, the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal is assessed over a longer period. A single year above that level does not, by itself, mean the long-term limit has formally been breached.