Nigeria and oil companies operating in the country have reportedly gained about $4 billion from the surge in crude oil prices triggered by the ongoing US/Israel-Iran conflict, which has lasted for several weeks.
The conflict, which began on February 28, has now extended beyond 50 days, creating volatility in the global energy market and pushing crude prices upward.
Analysis of data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that before the outbreak of the crisis, the average price of Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude stood at $70.14 per barrel. However, during the conflict period, the average price rose sharply to $116.84 per barrel, representing a 66.6 per cent increase.
Further data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission indicates that crude production also increased slightly, rising from 1.483 million barrels per day in February to 1.546 million barrels per day in March.
At pre-crisis pricing levels, Nigeria’s 52-day output was estimated to generate about $5.64 billion. However, at post-crisis prices, the same production level is valued at approximately $9.39 billion, creating an estimated windfall of around $4 billion for the government and oil operators.
Market data also shows that Bonny Light crude rose further to about $98 per barrel in recent trading, following renewed tensions after the collapse of diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran.
Energy analysts say prices are likely to remain volatile. According to the Chief Executive Officer of Petroleumprice.ng, Olatide Jeremiah, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty will continue to drive global oil markets in the coming weeks.
He noted that rising crude prices would not only affect upstream earnings but also downstream costs, including petrol prices, transportation, and general inflationary pressure on goods and services.
Similarly, the National President of the Oil and Gas Services Providers Association of Nigeria (OGSPAN), Mazi Colman Obasi, said the impact on Nigeria’s economy may be moderated by domestic refining capacity, particularly the operations of the Dangote Refinery, which can help cushion the effect of global price shocks.
However, he warned that energy costs could still rise if global instability persists, affecting both businesses and households.
