Nigeria’s trade sector emerged as a standout performer in October 2025, driving a notable rise in overall business sentiment even as structural challenges persist. With wholesale and retail trade showing renewed activity, the country’s private sector appears to be gaining momentum in a critical phase of economic recovery.
A Sector in the Lead
In October the trade business-performance index jumped to 115.4 points, up from 107.6 in September, signalling robust growth in the sector. Meanwhile, the comprehensive Current Business Performance Index recorded 111.3 points, up from 107.9 the prior month, reflecting broad-based expansion across Nigeria’s economy. These figures were revealed in the latest Nigerian Economic Summit Group Stanbic IBTC Bank Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) report published by the business daily.
According to the BCM data, the wholesale segment pushed ahead on the back of rising trade volumes and improved access to suppliers. Meanwhile, the retail sub-segment emerged from contraction to reach 102.2 points, representing a turnaround in consumer-facing business activity.
What’s Driving the Trade Revival?
Several factors contributed to the trade sector’s resurgence in October:
Improved consumer sentiment: With inflationary pressure appearing to moderate, consumers and businesses have exhibited stronger demand.
Exchange-rate stability: Relative calm in the naira’s value provided traders with more certainty regarding cost and margins.
Supply-chain recovery: Disruptions that had hampered inventory and distribution earlier in the year are easing, enabling businesses to restock and meet demand.
Seasonal and promotional activity: October is traditionally a period of heightened trading activity ahead of year-end, and many firms appear to have leveraged this.
The combination of these factors helped the trade segment outperform other sectors in the BCM survey and provided a major lift to overall confidence.
Broad-Based Expansion
The October results show that expansion is not confined to trade alone. All five major sectors covered by the BCM Trade, Manufacturing, Agriculture, Non-Manufacturing and Services posted readings above the 100-point threshold, signifying growth rather than contraction.
Manufacturing rose sharply to 111.3 points from 102.5 in September, reflecting an 8.8-point increase.
Agriculture recorded 111.4 points, supported by favourable harvest conditions and agro-input access.
The Non-Manufacturing segment landed at 115.0 points, while Services registered 111.0 points, though still lagging behind trade and manufacturing.
This widespread uptick suggests that Nigeria’s private sector is moving into a more synchronised growth phase with production, supply, and demand dynamics coming into closer alignment.
The growth in business confidence comes amid a backdrop of gradual economic stabilisation. Firms are responding to improved conditions, but many analysts caution that the recovery remains fragile.
The BCM’s Future Business Expectation Index stood at 132.9 points in October slightly lower than September’s reading of 134.5, but still significantly above the 98.0 recorded in the same period last year. This suggests firms remain optimistic about the next 1–3 months, but also more measured.
The report attributed the positive outlook to “seasonal economic activity, ongoing policy reforms, relative exchange-rate stability and infrastructure investments.” However, it also flagged persistent risks such as insecurity, high rental costs, policy uncertainty, and constrained access to financing.
Despite the encouraging sectoral data, a number of structural challenges threaten to undermine the momentum:
Access to credit remains a major constraint for many SMEs and manufacturing firms. Without affordable financing, capacity utilisation and expansion plans may stall.
Cost of doing business is still elevated. High electricity tariffs, unstable power supply, expensive rentals and logistical bottlenecks continue to weigh on firms.
Policy and regulatory clarity remains uneven. Entrepreneurs cite overlapping regulations, changing tax regimes and slow implementation of reforms as impediments to long-term planning.
Security and market disruptions: In certain zones, insecurity and supply-chain disruptions remain real risks that can quickly reverse gains in trade and manufacturing.
Services sector limitations: While services expanded, its growth remains weakest among the five sectors partly due to legacy infrastructure deficits and lower productivity growth.
These factors mean that while the private sector is on the move, sustaining and scaling that move will require focused action and structural reform.
Implications for Business and Investment
For Investors: The improved readings in trade, manufacturing and agriculture suggest new opportunities are emerging in Nigeria. From retail and wholesale supply to agro-processing and manufacturing off-take, the environment appears more favourable than it has in recent months. However, investors must still account for foreign-exchange risk, regulatory shifts and cost inflation in their models.
For Business Leaders: The current environment rewards agility. Companies that can leverage improved supply-chain access, manage costs and localise operations may gain competitive advantage. However, those that are overly reliant on imported inputs or face financing constraints may still struggle.
For Policymakers: The data provides reason for cautious optimist the private sector is responding. But to transform confidence into expanded output, employment and exports, policy-makers will need to aggressively tackle financing access, infrastructure deficits and regulatory consistency.
The next few months will be pivotal. Key indicators to monitor include:
Credit growth and lending rates: Will banks pass improved conditions on to real‐sector borrowers?
Manufacturing capacity utilisation: Will manufacturers scale up beyond current expansion?
Retail and consumer demand trends: Will favourable sentiment convert into sustained spending growth?
Services sector productivity: Can the lagging services segment accelerate?
Policy stability and infrastructure delivery: Will reforms and investments in power, logistics and trade begin to deliver tangible results?
How these dynamics evolve will determine whether October’s confidence boost becomes a durable platform for growth or simply a short-lived uptick.
October’s BCM report offers encouraging signs: Nigeria’s trade sector is powering ahead, confidence is rising and multiple sectors are expanding in tandem. Yet beneath the surface lies a more complex reality the business environment remains far from frictionless. Structural headwinds remain significant, and realise the full potential of this moment, Nigeria must convert confidence into capacity, reform into results, and expansion into inclusive growth.
