NIGERIA’S TRADE SURPLUS SOARS AS EXPORTS GROW AND IMPORTS COOL

Nigeria has recorded a robust trade surplus of ₦7.46 trillion in Q2 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports, marking a significant 5.6% increase over the previous quarter’s ₦5.17 trillion surplus. The strong trade performance reflects both rising export momentum and signs that import growth is slowing a development with wide-ranging implications for the country’s balance of payments and economic diversification strategy. (The Guardian Nigeria)

What the Trade Data Reveals

• Total Trade Volume: Nigeria’s total merchandise trade for Q2 2025 reached ₦38.03 trillion, up from ₦36.02 trillion in Q1. (TheCable)
• Export Growth: Exports rose to ₦22.75 trillion, a 10.5% quarter-on-quarter jump, driven by both crude and non-crude shipments. (The Guardian Nigeria)
• Import Trend: Imports stood at ₦15.28 trillion, slightly down from Q1, indicating a cooling of import demand. (Vanguard News)
• Crude vs Non-Crude Exports: Crude oil exports made up 52.6% of the quarter’s exports, valued at ₦11.97 trillion, while non-crude exports contributed ₦10.78 trillion, suggesting a notable shift toward more diversified export activity. (The Guardian Nigeria)

What’s Fueling the Surplus

1. Export Diversification Gains
   While crude oil remains a cornerstone, non-crude exports are gaining ground. The rising value of non-oil exports including gas, refined products, and possibly increasingly in agricultural goods is helping to reduce Nigeria’s traditional over-reliance on crude alone. (Business Post Nigeria)
2. Improved Competitiveness
   Exchange-rate reforms and a more favorable FX environment may be lowering the cost of Nigerian exports, making them more competitive in global markets. This, in turn, is supporting higher volumes and export value.
3. Strategic Trade Partnerships
   Nigeria is deepening trade ties with key economies, and the data suggests that trade corridors are becoming more efficient. As supply chains adjust, export businesses are reaping stronger demand.
4. Prudent Import Management
   The slight dip in import volumes and value suggests that some domestic demand is being substituted via local production or that importers are more selective. This helps conserve foreign exchange and supports the trade surplus.

Implications for the Nigerian Economy

• Reserve Stabilization: A wider trade surplus can support Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves, providing a buffer against external shocks.
• Economic Diversification: Increasing non-crude export value may help Nigeria reduce its dependence on oil, laying the groundwork for a more resilient economy.
• Policy Validation: The trade data vindicates ongoing fiscal and economic reforms, including efforts to improve the ease of export and lower import dependence.
• Business Opportunity: Export-oriented companies especially in agriculture, gas, and manufacturing may find growing demand and more stable conditions to scale up.

Risks and Cautions

Even with the strong surplus, several risks could undermine the positive trajectory:

• Oil Price Volatility: Nigeria’s reliance on crude means that any drop in global oil prices could quickly erode export revenues.
• Export Sustainability: Non-crude export growth must be sustained; temporary surges or one-off commodity cycles could distort the longer-term picture.
• Foreign Exchange Pressure: A significant surplus could draw speculative inflows or create pressure in the FX market if not managed properly.
• Infrastructure Constraints: Poor logistics, port congestion, and inadequate processing capacity could limit the ability of exporters to scale efficiently.

Reactions from Key Stakeholders

• CBN & Monetary Authorities: Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso celebrated the surplus, noting it as a sign that macro reforms are working. In remarks cited by the Vanguard, he linked the surplus to disciplined fiscal and monetary policy. (Vanguard News)
• Exporters: Many exporters are cautiously optimistic. Non-oil exporters, especially in gas and refined products, see this as validation for further capital investment.
• Policy Makers: The government sees the data as a critical win, reinforcing the importance of export-driven growth and non-oil sector stimulus.
• Analysts: Economists warn that while the trade surplus is encouraging, without infrastructure improvements and further export diversification, the gains may not be sustainable.

What to Watch Going Forward

1. Q3 & Q4 Trade Data: Will the surplus continue to widen, or will import demand rebound?
2. Non-Crude Export Trends: Are non-oil exports scaling enough to meaningfully shift Nigeria’s revenue structure?
3. FX Market Behavior: How will foreign exchange inflows respond to the stronger trade picture?
4. Investment in Export Infrastructure: Will the government and private sector accelerate investment in ports, rail, processing plants, and logistics?
5. Policy Continuity: Will Nigeria sustain reforms that foster export competitiveness, such as incentives, trade facilitation, and value-added exports?

Nigeria’s ₦7.46 trillion trade surplus in Q2 2025 is a major economic development. Driven by both crude and non-crude exports, the result reflects the country’s evolving trade profile and growing competitiveness. While the surplus presents a strong signal of reform progress, it also raises important questions about sustainability, value-addition, and infrastructure.

If Nigeria can maintain export strength while building the capacity to move beyond raw resource sales, the surplus could become a foundation for more resilient, diversified growth. But for that to happen, the government, businesses, and investors must collaborate to address constraints in logistics, industrial processing, and global market access.

At this moment, Nigeria’s trade numbers are not just good news they are an opportunity. The challenge now is turning this opportunity into long-term prosperity.