Nigeria’s oil production, including condensate, recorded a significant decline in February 2026, falling by nine per cent month-on-month to 1.483 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 1.627 million bpd in January. This was disclosed in the latest production report released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), highlighting ongoing challenges in the country’s oil sector.
On a year-on-year basis, output also dropped by 11 per cent compared to February 2025, when production stood at 1.671 million bpd. The report noted that the lowest and peak combined crude oil and condensate production levels for the period were 1.52 million bpd and 1.82 million bpd respectively. Average crude oil production accounted for about 95 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd.
According to the Commission, the daily average production in February was 1,544,345 barrels, comprising 1,421,960 bpd of crude oil and 122,385 bpd of condensate. While the NUPRC did not officially state the reasons for the persistent decline, industry sources pointed to ageing infrastructure and continued oil theft, particularly in the Niger Delta, as major contributing factors.
An industry stakeholder, who preferred anonymity, expressed concern that output should have improved under the Commission’s production growth initiatives. Instead, the continued drop suggests deeper structural issues affecting the sector.
The development means Nigeria fell short of its 2026 budget benchmark of 1.8 million bpd, despite global oil prices remaining above $100 per barrel. The national budget was based on conservative assumptions, including a crude oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, a daily production target of 1.84 million barrels, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the dollar.
In a related development, the NUPRC announced progress in its 2025 Licensing Round, confirming that investors have been shortlisted for 50 oil blocks. Pre-qualified companies have been granted access to relevant data to support their technical and commercial bid preparations, marking the next phase of the licensing process.
