Nigeria is showing renewed signs of economic vigor, with key indicators pointing to stronger business sentiment, rising investor interest, and growth forecasts that outpace many peers. Yet even as the private sector lights up, structural bottlenecks from limited credit access to policy uncertainty threaten to curb the momentum. For business leaders, investors, and policymakers, the moment is ripe for decisive action.
In October 2025, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group–Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) recorded a Current Business Performance Index of 111.3 points up 3.4 points from September and a remarkable 34.5-point leap over the same period in 2024.
Notably, all five broad sectors Manufacturing, Trade, Agriculture, Non-Manufacturing, and Services remained in expansion territory. Trade reached 115.4 points, Agriculture 111.4, and Non-Manufacturing 115.0.
Such widespread expansion signals more than a cyclical rebound; it suggests that production, domestic demand, and corporate sentiment are finally aligning in a way not seen since the pre-pandemic years. According to findings compiled from the NESG Stanbic IBTC BCM Report and economic insights published by TheCable, Nairametrics, and Business Post Nigeria, this trend marks one of the most sustained private-sector confidence surges in the past decade.
Government projections now show Nigeria’s economy poised to grow by around 4% in 2025 and possibly 5% in 2026 figures that carry extra weight given Nigeria’s long history of growth underperformance, inflationary pressure, and dependence on oil.
With investor confidence strengthening and non-oil sectors expanding, the stage appears set for greater private-sector participation in output, innovation, and job creation. Yet sustaining this momentum will depend heavily on policy consistency and access to affordable financing.
Despite the growing optimism, several entrenched obstacles continue to slow progress:
Access to Finance: Venture capital and private equity inflows have dropped sharply from $1.14 billion in 2022 to just $207.5 million in 2025. Experts attribute this to exchange-rate reforms, market volatility, and a scarcity of exit options for investors.
Infrastructure and Cost Burdens: Businesses still face erratic electricity supply, high input costs, rising rent, and lingering insecurity in commercial zones all of which weigh heavily on productivity.
Frequent policy reversals, inconsistent tax enforcement, and overlapping regulatory jurisdictions have created uncertainty that discourages long-term investment.
Import Dependency and FX Pressure: Despite efforts to diversify, Nigeria continues to rely heavily on imported goods and capital equipment, leaving firms vulnerable to currency depreciation and inflation.
The capital market tells two stories at once. On one hand, Nigeria’s non-interest capital market segment now valued at about ₦1.6 trillion demonstrates growing appetite for alternative financing instruments, particularly among institutional and ethical investors.
On the other, the steep decline in startup funding reveals deeper structural challenges. Currency instability, limited investor exits, and liquidity shortages have deterred venture funds that once drove innovation across fintech, logistics, and agritech.
This contrast underscores Nigeria’s complex investment environment one that offers significant promise, but still demands resilience and adaptability.
Sectoral Bright Spots
Manufacturing:
The manufacturing sub-index rose 8.8 points in October to reach 111.3. Food and beverage, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals are leading the rebound, supported by improved local sourcing of inputs and adoption of automation.
Trade:
At 115.4, trade remains the most upbeat sector. Rising consumer demand, better inventory management, and easing inflation are fueling optimism among wholesalers and retailers alike.
Agriculture:
With a reading of 111.4, agriculture continues to perform strongly, driven by improved seed distribution, favorable weather conditions, and better access to inputs. Beyond its GDP contribution, the sector remains crucial for employment and rural income growth.
Together, these trends point to an economy gradually pivoting away from oil dependency toward a more diversified, demand-driven structure.
Policy Actions to Sustain the Momentum
If the private sector’s renewed confidence is to translate into sustained economic growth, several policy priorities must be addressed:
1. Enhance Access to Financing:
Banks and development finance institutions should expand long-term credit in local currency, reduce collateral requirements, and support small and medium-sized enterprises with flexible loan structures.
2. Invest in Infrastructure:
Expanding power generation capacity, improving transport corridors, and upgrading logistics infrastructure would lower business costs and attract foreign direct investment.
3. Ensure Regulatory Stability:
Predictable tax, trade, and foreign exchange policies will give investors the confidence needed to commit long-term capital.
4. Promote Inclusive Growth:
Economic gains must reach beyond large corporates. Strengthening support for SMEs, agribusinesses, and creative industries will ensure that growth is both broad-based and sustainable.
What It Means for Stakeholders
For Investors:
Nigeria’s market offers significant upside in manufacturing, trade, agriculture, and non-interest finance. However, investors must price in FX risk, operational costs, and policy uncertainty in their models.
For Business Leaders:
Demand is rising, and confidence is building. Those who can control costs, localize production, and adopt technology will be best positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities.
Momentum is building, but to sustain it, reforms must be consistent, infrastructure projects must move beyond announcements, and private capital must be encouraged through clear, stable policy frameworks.
Nigeria’s economy stands at a defining moment. The private sector is showing unprecedented resilience, confidence is climbing, and growth prospects are brighter than they have been in years. But optimism alone won’t translate into transformation.
To truly unlock its “investment gold mine,” Nigeria must confront structural bottlenecks head-on from unreliable power to limited financing and regulatory inconsistencies. If addressed, the result could be one of Africa’s most dynamic private-sector expansions, reshaping regional investment patterns and strengthening Nigeria’s role as a continental economic leader.
