Nigeria’s economy has now posted its eleventh consecutive month of expansion, with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to 55.4 points in October 2025, up from 54.0 in September. The report shows broad-based strength across industry, services and agriculture. Vanguard News+1
Driving Forces Behind the Growth
The October PMI data indicate growing momentum across multiple sectors: the industry sector PMI at 54.2 points saw nine of its 17 sub sectors record improvement, the services sector reached 55.6 points with 11 of 14 sub sectors expanding, and agriculture rose to 55.7 points, marking its fifteenth consecutive month of growth. This signals that Nigeria’s rebound is becoming more entrenched and diversified.
Several factors underpin this traction: improved global commodity markets supporting Nigeria’s oil and agricultural exports; relative exchange-rate stability improving business confidence; and redistributed domestic demand driven by population growth and urbanisation. At the same time, recent policy adjustments such as subsidy reforms and exchange-rate unification appear to have removed some of the paralysing uncertainty that had stifled private-sector investment.
Structural Strengths Emerging
- Agriculture’s resurgence: With all five agricultural sub sectors expanding, the sector is proving resilient. The wide gap between input and output prices (8.4 index points) shows cost pressures still exist, but the fact of growth itself is promising.
- Manufacturing revival: Industry’s rebound suggests that demand is returning for domestic production as supply-chain constraints ease.
- Services holding firm: Although the smallest gap between input and output prices (0.6 points) indicates pricing pressure, the continuation of expansion in services signals rising consumer and business activity.
Challenges and Risks
Despite the positive signals, the journey ahead is not without obstacles. The input–output price gap in agriculture suggests that cost inflation remains a concern. Infrastructure deficits particularly unstable electricity and logistics bottlenecks still weigh on capacity utilisation and margins. More importantly, sustaining expansion will require access to affordable credit for SMEs and meaningful investment in human capital. Without this, growth may plateau or become fragile.
Implications for Stakeholders
For businesses, the message is quite clear: the environment is improving, and firms should position themselves for growth, especially those able to scale up, localise supply chains and adopt digital tools. Investors may see Nigeria’s economy moving from recovery to expansion mode, opening opportunities in manufacturing, agribusiness, infrastructure and services. Policymakers, meanwhile, must now shift from securing expansion to ensuring it is inclusive and durable, focusing on credit access, infrastructure, labour skills and regional disparities.
What to Watch
- Credit growth: Will banks lend more to industry and SMEs, or will sovereign borrowing crowd out the private sector?
- Capacity utilisation in manufacturing and agriculture: Will firms ramp up output or remain constrained?
- Employment growth: Does the expansion translate into job creation in the private sector?
- Capacity utilisation in manufacturing and agriculture: Will firms ramp up output or remain constrained?
- Employment growth: Does the expansion translate into job creation, especially in rural and informal sectors?
- Input cost vs output price trends: Particularly in agriculture and manufacturing will margins improve?
- Regional and state-level divergence: Are growth gains concentrated in Lagos/Nigeria’s South or spreading across states?
The tenth month running of economic expansion is a significant milestone for Nigeria. It reflects not just recovery but potentially the early signs of a sustainable up-cycle. However, confidence must be converted into capacity, and capacity must turn into inclusive growth. For GNA TV’s audience of business leaders, investors and policymakers, the opportunity is there but the real Nigerian Exchange Limited Rebound After Historic One-Day Sell-Off: Market Confidence Restored?
