Nigeria’s economic growth is expected to accelerate, with projections of 4 percent in 2025 and 5 percent in 2026, signalling a period of sustained expansion. According to Sanyade Okoli, Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Finance and the Economy, the country has already exceeded its 2025 growth target, posting a 4.3 percent increase in the second quarter.
Okoli made the disclosure at the Nigeria Investors Forum in Washington, D.C., held alongside the annual World Bank–IMF meetings, emphasizing that rising investor confidence and policy stability are driving optimism in Nigeria’s economic trajectory.
According to a TheCable report, Okoli stated that Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow by 4.0 percent in 2025 and 5.0 percent in 2026. The projections were communicated at the forum on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Annual Meetings.
Okoli explained that the robust Q2 2025 performance underpins the upward revision. The country posted a real GDP growth rate of 4.23 percent in Q2, surpassing the IMF’s earlier projection of 3.4 percent. This growth was driven by higher performance across 13 sectors, each recording growth above 7 percent—a marked improvement over Q1’s nine sectors at that threshold.
The growth forecast is grounded in Nigeria’s ongoing shift toward economic diversification, away from heavy oil dependence. Okoli noted that the percentage of GDP contributed by oil has fallen to around 4 percent, while non-oil exports and the services sector are becoming increasingly important contributors to national output.
The Tinubu administration has implemented bold reforms in recent years, including the removal of fuel subsidies, foreign exchange liberalisation, tax reforms, and a rebasing of GDP to better reflect Nigeria’s evolving economic structure.
According to the World Bank’s October 2025 Nigeria Development Update (NDU) titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” the economy expanded by 3.9 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2025. This performance was driven largely by the services and non-oil industries. Reserves exceeded USD 42 billion, and the current-account surplus reached approximately 6.1 percent of GDP.
Risks and Areas for Attention
Despite the upbeat projections, analysts have urged caution. Inflation remains elevated—particularly food inflation—which continues to strain lower-income households. The World Bank has warned that unless supply-side bottlenecks and food-price dynamics are addressed, real inclusive growth may lag behind headline figures.
Other risks include infrastructure deficits, unstable power supply, insecurity in some regions affecting investment, and exposure to external shocks such as volatile oil prices or tighter global financial conditions.
Implications for Nigerians and Investors
For everyday Nigerians, a 4 percent growth rate in 2025 offers hope for improved livelihoods, though the actual impact will depend on how effectively growth translates into jobs, income, and welfare improvements.
The private sector stands to gain from a more stable and reform-driven economic environment that supports increased investment and easier access to credit. Similarly, foreign investors may view the country as regaining momentum, reinforcing Nigeria’s attractiveness within both the African and global markets.
Outlook and Next Steps
The road ahead requires that reforms be maintained and deepened. Key performance indicators to monitor include private-sector credit growth, inflation trends—especially in food prices—foreign-exchange market stability, and fiscal discipline encompassing revenue mobilisation and deficit control.
If these metrics trend positively, Nigeria could be on track to meet the 5 percent growth target in 2026 and beyond. Achieving this milestone will depend on sustained reform implementation, good governance, and continued investment in infrastructure and human capital.
