Fresh concerns over a possible increase in petrol prices have emerged in Nigeria as global crude oil prices surged to $114 per barrel, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Across parts of the country, petrol prices have already climbed to between N1,200 and N1,400 per litre, reflecting the impact of global supply disruptions. The latest spike follows intensified hostilities, including Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field—the world’s largest natural gas reserve—and retaliatory attacks by Iran on energy infrastructure in Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
The escalation has rattled global energy markets, with Brent crude rising by 6.24 per cent to $114.08 per barrel, its highest level since May 2022, while the United States West Texas Intermediate crude increased to $96.33 per barrel.
Despite the volatility in crude oil prices, the domestic market for liquefied petroleum gas (cooking gas) has remained relatively stable in major cities such as Abuja and Lagos. Prices at key retail outlets hovered around N1,100 to N1,150 per kilogram, although some regions in the South-East and South-South recorded increases of up to N1,800 per kilogram.
The surge in crude prices has continued to influence Nigeria’s downstream sector. Since the onset of the conflict, petrol prices have risen significantly from an initial range of N730 to N880 per litre to current levels exceeding N1,200 in many locations.
Dangote Refinery recently adjusted its ex-gantry price of petrol to N1,175 per litre, citing exposure to global crude benchmarks. This triggered multiple upward reviews in pump prices by marketers, including NNPC Retail outlets and independent marketers.
Meanwhile, tensions remain high globally, with Iran warning of further attacks on regional energy infrastructure if provoked again. The United States has also indicated potential measures to stabilise oil markets, including releasing strategic reserves and easing restrictions on Iranian oil shipments.
As uncertainty persists, stakeholders warn that continued volatility in global oil prices could further strain Nigeria’s economy, increasing transportation costs and worsening inflationary pressures on households.
