The Sea Empowerment and Research Center (SEREC) has warned that escalating tensions between the United States and Iran could pose significant economic and security challenges for African maritime nations.
The organisation said the growing geopolitical crisis may have far-reaching consequences for import-dependent economies across the African Union, many of which are considered particularly vulnerable to disruptions in global trade and energy supply chains.
This was contained in a communiqué signed by the Head of Research at SEREC, Eugene Nweke.
According to Nweke, rising global oil prices and increased shipping costs triggered by the conflict could translate into higher fuel prices and food inflation across African economies. He added that many countries on the continent could also experience increased pressure on their currencies as the cost of imports rises.
Nweke further warned that a prolonged confrontation between the two countries could trigger sustained volatility in global oil prices, a spike in freight rates, and increased war-risk insurance premiums for vessels operating on major international shipping routes.
He noted that such developments could contribute to broader global inflationary pressures while also disrupting maritime trade flows critical to many African economies.
The research centre also expressed concern that maritime security may come under increased strain as shipping routes become more volatile. According to the statement, African countries may need to strengthen naval cooperation, surveillance systems, and regional coordination mechanisms to protect vital sea lanes.
Particular attention, the centre said, should be given to safeguarding trade corridors in the Gulf of Guinea, one of Africa’s most important maritime trade zones.
As part of its recommendations, SEREC urged Nigeria and its regional partners to utilise any potential oil windfall gains from rising crude prices to stabilise their economies and invest in infrastructure rather than expand recurrent spending.
The centre also advised the government to ensure steady crude oil allocation to domestic refineries, including the Dangote Refinery, in order to strengthen local refining capacity.
In addition, it recommended expanding strategic petroleum reserves, strengthening maritime security coordination across the Gulf of Guinea, and deepening regional trade integration to reduce dependence on volatile extra-African shipping routes.
The communiqué stressed that Nigeria’s economic resilience will depend not only on increased crude oil revenues but also on disciplined fiscal management, improved domestic refining capacity, trade diversification, and stronger maritime competitiveness.
It further warned that without coherent national policy alignment, the potential stabilising role of the Dangote Refinery could be undermined.
“The US–Iran confrontation is more than a geopolitical conflict — it is a structural stress test for global trade and maritime systems,” the statement said.
It added that Nigeria’s ability to withstand external economic shocks will depend largely on prudent fiscal discipline and stronger strategic maritime cooperation with regional partners.
