A maritime research group operating under the Sea Empowerment and Research Centre has warned that the ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran could push global freight rates up by between 15 and 40 per cent.
The group stated that the escalation presents serious geopolitical and economic risks to global energy markets as well as international maritime trade systems.
This was contained in a statement signed by the Head of Research at SEREC, Eugene Nweke.
According to the group, the Strait of Hormuz remains highly vulnerable. The waterway handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s crude oil supply each day, making any disruption potentially severe for global energy markets.
SEREC warned that prolonged instability in the region could result in significant economic consequences, including rising oil prices, higher freight rates and increased insurance premiums for vessels operating in high-risk areas.
The group projected that crude oil prices could rise to between $110 and $140 per barrel if tensions persist. It also warned that marine war-risk insurance premiums could surge by between 200 and 400 per cent in affected shipping corridors.
According to the report, emerging economies may also face renewed inflationary pressures and currency depreciation if disruptions continue.
“Oil prices may range between $110 and $140 per barrel under sustained tension. Global freight rates could increase by 15–40 per cent due to rerouting and risk premiums, while marine war-risk insurance may surge 200–400 per cent in high-risk corridors,” the statement said.
The group noted, however, that Nigeria could experience short-term fiscal gains due to higher global crude oil prices.
It estimated that if oil prices reach $120 per barrel, Nigeria could generate between $18 billion and $22 billion in additional annual oil revenue, with gross domestic product growth potentially rising by 1 to 1.2 per cent in the short term.
Despite these potential gains, SEREC cautioned that inflation could increase by three to five per cent as logistics costs and imported input prices rise. It also warned of possible exchange-rate volatility and higher food and transportation costs.
The group highlighted the role of the Dangote Refinery, noting that its operations could significantly reduce Nigeria’s exposure to global fuel supply disruptions by cutting reliance on imported refined petroleum products.
According to SEREC, the refinery could also help reduce foreign exchange demand, ease pressure on the naira and potentially lower imported fuel inflation.
The organisation further advised the government to invest any oil windfall gains into economic stabilisation measures and infrastructure development rather than recurrent expenditure. It also recommended strengthening maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea, expanding petroleum reserves and deepening regional trade integration to improve resilience against global shipping disruptions.
