An economist and Director of the Public Sector Initiative at Lagos Business School, Franklin Ngwu, has warned that as many as 140 million Nigerians could be classified as poor by 2026, despite ongoing economic reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration.
Ngwu made the projection while speaking on Prime Time, a current affairs programme on Arise Television, on Monday. He noted that although Nigeria required economic reforms, the manner and sequencing of their implementation have worsened key socio-economic indicators, particularly unemployment and poverty.
According to him, reforms such as the removal of fuel subsidy and the floating of the foreign exchange market were necessary but poorly executed, with severe consequences for ordinary Nigerians.
Ngwu argued that the true measure of reform success should be assessed by examining economic indicators before and after implementation. He pointed out that unemployment has continued to rise, while poverty levels are increasing rather than declining. He also noted that Nigeria’s public debt has grown significantly during the period.
While acknowledging that some indicators show marginal improvement, Ngwu said these gains have not translated into better living conditions for citizens. He cited claims by authorities that inflation has been rebased and is trending toward 15 percent, as well as rising government revenue, but stressed that these figures offer little comfort to households struggling with daily survival.
“The key question is how ordinary Nigerians perceive and feel about these reforms,” Ngwu said, adding that poverty and unemployment remain the most critical indicators of public welfare.
He further referenced a United Nations report which estimates that about 30 million Nigerians will fall into poverty in 2026 alone. Combined with existing figures, he warned that this could push the total number of Nigerians living in poverty to nearly 140 million.
Ngwu concluded that without targeted interventions, job creation, and social protection measures, economic reforms risk deepening hardship rather than delivering inclusive growth.
